Couldn’t resist putting up this comment piece from today’s Guardian; absolutely brilliant analysis:
‘I will explain for you. In the larger trend in American political life, after a two term Democrat or Republican, there is often a switch to the other, generally indistinct, political group. It is how Americans comfort themselves that they have a democracy at a federal level. [They are the most democratic nation in the entire world, ever, at state and local government levels.] So I believe a Republican will get in.
As to polls, they are largely lies, and cannot be relied upon in themselves. You would have more chance making money on the stock market, and that is the shadow of a dream for everyone who either is not a billionaire or an insider. As well, American politics is about character assassination. So, good men like Kerry and McCain suffer. Obama was unimpeachable and won, twice. HRC is extremely vulnerable for so many reasons that I will not bore you with them. Jeb Bush is less vulnerable to personal attack than HRC is. The Republicans learned all about the Clintons in the 90's. They have been expecting her ever since, and are ready to unleash hell once she wins the nomination. They are keeping their powder dry now. She knows this, and it explains her diffidence for she is a human being and a political mask is still a mask. She slips every now and then with her behaviour, which cannot be masked. For the Republicans the issue can be parsed as the womens' vote. They see it as capable of being influenced by a purported moral attack on her [do not worry, they have no morality behind it, but all politics can be seen as a pose of deceit, and Obama was invulnerable to that, as a good and decent man who told the truth].
So that is why I say what I say. She will win the nomination battle and lose the presidential war, for it will be a war of posturing, and the posturing of the Republicans will be better, and it is their time, anyways, in the great shell-game of American Presidential democracy.
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